Now that we are at the end of November, a recurring question arises among directors and producers who have had a film in distribution this year:
What’s happening with my film? It no longer has festival selections.
Has it stopped working?
During the months of September, October, and November, you have seen the pace of selections grow significantly, but now, suddenly, that pace has come to a halt.
Don’t worry.
It’s not a problem with your film. It’s a matter of statistics.
While November accumulates the highest number of selections throughout the year, December, January, and February are the months when the fewest festivals take place. It’s such an abrupt change that it surprises many directors and catches them off guard.
They have spent recent weekends with several festivals happening simultaneously, without time to attend all of them, and now they have none.
Additionally, keep in mind that this year there has been a noticeable increase in selections starting in October, much greater than in other years, which makes this decline seem even more pronounced.
This is the graph of festival selections we have accumulated so far with our distribution projects (we have already surpassed 2,000 selections) where you can clearly see the growth in October and the sharp decline in December:
This week we are already beginning to notice this decline in selections. We have gone from 311 to 84, in competitive sections alone, in a matter of days.
As I mentioned earlier, in 2018 the months of October and November have been especially intense, with 326 and 357 total selections respectively. In other words, during these two months we have had an average of 11 selections per day, compared to an average of 3 selections expected between December and January.
Let’s compare this data with the previous two years to see the trend.
This is 2017:
And this is 2016:
In these graphs you can see very clearly how this trend remains consistent despite the variations that occur each year.
The quarter comprising September, October, and November is the strongest quarter of the year. In contrast, the quarter with the months of December, January, and February is the lowest.
Regarding the number of festivals by date of celebration, in October we have recorded 811 festival entries, in November 816, and in December the number drops to 298.
These figures make it clear that the decline in selections you have noticed, whether you have had great success or not, is not a problem with your film, but rather a matter of timing and the functioning of the festival circuit at the national and international level.
There are other insights we can draw from these figures
Festival celebration dates
If you are organizing a festival or considering changing dates, you could use this data to identify the months you should avoid and those that represent an opportunity.
There is a very clear saturation of festivals in October and November that should give many festival directors pause, while on the other hand there are months with much less competition.
One of the problems some directors end up facing is being able to attend all the festivals, since many coincide on the same dates, while later they find themselves with months where there are practically no festivals.
When to start distribution?
This is another consideration you could make: if there are fewer festivals now, is it worth waiting to start distribution in December?.
Really, any time is good to start promoting your film; it’s a matter of planning festivals according to the calendar ahead of you.
In any case, you should take into account that there are now fewer festivals accepting submissions, therefore, results will take longer to arrive. In many cases, the submissions you make now are for festivals taking place from March or April onward.
If you have planned a distribution for about six months, you could also extend the initially planned timeframe. Keep in mind that starting submissions now is not the same as starting in April, when many more festivals have open calls, especially many of those taking place from September onward.
In short, you need to be aware of the circuit’s behavior month by month to assess the situation your film is in and not make hasty decisions.
How are you managing these last few weeks? Have you noticed this decline in festivals?